Fernando Alonso has revealed that he thinks the Malaysian weather will have a crucial role in deciding who takes the points. The Spaniard had a decent first Grand Prix in Australia and is looking to improve on his 5th place, a task which will be easier for him if he avoids repeating his poor performance in qualifying at the Sepang Circuit in Kuala Lumpur.

The cars will all have to deal with hot, humid conditions, and the tropical weather can change almost instantly with very little warning. “There is no other place in the Formula One world where it can go from sunshine to torrential rain in the space of a few minutes,” said Alonso. “Not even at Spa [Belgian Grand Prix] is the variability so acute. Those on the pit wall will have to keep their eyes peeled and look at the radar carefully to be ready for any possible change in the weather.”

The high probability of rain at the circuit throws in another factor to the racing strategies, as teams have to guess when it might rain and how to react, should it happen. A wet track instantly loses grip, and some drivers are better than others at adapting to the conditions and making the most of them – a fact that Button used to his advantage in Canada last season, when he slipped past Vettel on the final lap, as the German hit a wet patch and went wide. Michael Schumacher also did something very similar.

Alonso thinks he has a chance to emulate Button and benefit from the rain, and given Ferrari’s grim outlook so far this season, he needs to find all the advantages he can over his opponents. “At the moment the forecast is for a high chance of rain both for qualifying and the race. But honestly I don’t have much faith in the forecast,” said Fernando. “The important thing is to react promptly and grab every opportunity. The only thing you can be absolutely certain of is that it will be hot — very hot.”